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When should I trust my data and when is it just statistical noise?

Most early ecom data is noise. Rule of thumb: you need at minimum 100 sessions to draw any conclusion about CVR, and 500+ sessions for statistically meaningful data. At 30 sessions/day, your "2% CVR" is based on 0-3 purchases — meaningless. At 200 sessions/day, you can start making decisions. The data becomes trustworthy when your conclusion would hold even if you flipped 2-3 of those data points. If your entire argument rests on 1-2 sales, you're making decisions on noise.

Tactical FixBefore making any optimization decision, check the underlying sample size. If you're below 100 sessions for a CVR conclusion, or below $2x your target CPA for a ROAS conclusion, wait. Making data-driven decisions on tiny samples is just making emotional decisions with extra steps.

See this in practice: Read Your Data

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